De Gustibus Non Est Disputandum

Então seu amigo, no bar, disse que o comércio internacional aumenta o desemprego e que o bom é proteger a economia com algum tipo de política industrial? Bem, talvez ele deva ler isto.

International Trade and Unemployment: Theory and Cross-National Evidence
Pushan Dutt Devashish Mitra Priya Ranjan
INSEAD Syracuse University University of California - Irvine
December, 2007
Abstract
In this paper, we present two alternative models of trade and unemployment, in which unemployment is generated through a search mechanism. The basic framework of the …rst model is Ricardian in that the only factor of production is labor and trade is based on relative technological di¤erences. The second model has a Heckscher-Ohlin (H-O) framework with two factors of production, namely labor and capital that are intersectorally mobile. Using cross-country data on various measures of trade policy, unemployment and a variety of controls, we …find strong evidence for the Ricardian prediction that unemployment and trade
openness are negatively related (protection and unemployment are positively related). We do not find any support for the H-O prediction that this relation between trade openness and unemployment changes from negative to positive as we move from labor-abundant to capital-abundant countries. Our results are robust to the inclusion of controls for labor market institutions and macroeconomic distortions. They hold for both ordinary least squares and instrumental-variables approaches, where the latter accounts for the endogeneity of trade policy to unemployment and possible measurement errors in trade policy variables.

O debate é sempre interessante. Mas, em casos como este, ele começa com os dados e com uma teoria (lógica) que faça sentido. E com hipóteses que possam ser testadas. Sem aquela baboseira de acusar as pessoas sérias de “neopositivistas”. Entre o teste de hipóteses e a maconha verborrágica, neste tipo de pergunta obviamente empírica, fico com o primeiro. Mas você tem todo o direito de ficar com o segundo. Só não pode reivindicar (o uso d)a razão, neste caso.